On the first trading day of 2020, the northbound capital bought 100 million yuan a day, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect channel bought 100 million yuan in net and the Shenzhen Stock Connect channel bought 100 million yuan in net. At this point, since the north of the capital interconnection, the cumulative net flow of more than trillion yuan, has reached 100 million yuan.
Among them, the net purchase amount for the full year of the northbound capital in 2019 is 100 million yuan, a record high in the past year, an increase of 100 million yuan over 2018. At the same time, the transaction activity of the northbound capital in 2019 has also improved significantly. From January 1 to December 12,2019, the total turnover of northbound capital transactions reached trillion yuan, up 98 percent from the trillion yuan in 2018, according to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's statistical annual report.
From the details, north of the funds have band operation, will also chase hot spots. Such as last year, northerly capital is no longer a big increase in guizhou maotai, and in december, northerly capital holdings rose more than a percentage point of more than 50 stocks, alcohol stocks are also absent.
However, in general, the northbound capital is still dominated by the long line logic, and its continuous inflow not only affects the pricing of some sectors, but also drives the change of the logic of A-share investment.
From November 14,2019 to December 30, northbound funds have seen a net purchase for up to 30 consecutive trading days. In this wave of operations at the end of 2019, the electronics sector, as well as the previous relatively \"cold\" cyclical stocks, were the main target of its additions, according to the data.
In december, aston and weir's northbound capital holdings rose by a percentage point and a percentage point, respectively, to the top of all the targets in the two cities. At the same time, cement stocks in the Qilian Mountain in December last year also received north of the capital to increase the percentage point. This is in line with the past month, A-share market cycle plate rise, technology sector continued to strengthen the market height.
Previously, the big consumer sector, represented by food and beverage, household appliances and pharmaceuticals, has been the main investment line favored by northbound funds. In 2018, the big consumer sector had a deep correction, pharmaceutical biology, food and beverage, household appliances plate all recorded more than 20% of the withdrawal, which gave northbound funds very good \"boarding\" opportunities. In that year, Yili shares, Wuliangye received more than 200 million shares of funds in the north, and the proportion of capital in Guizhou Moutai rose from% to about 8%.
By 2019, the big consumer sector has soared along the way, with thousands of yuan of shares in Guizhou Moutai repeatedly hitting a new high. But in this context, the northbound capital's 2019 buying strategy has shifted, no longer focusing on traditional hot targets such as liquor, but looking to more segment industry leaders.
From the change of shareholding ratio, from the beginning of 2019 to the middle and late December, the proportion of northbound capital holdings of a group of \"new faces \", such as one-heart hall, Sofia, Dean diagnosis, Europa home, Yunnan Baiyao, Qia food and so on, increased significantly. Among them, the single-minded north of the capital-holding ratio rose by about 16 percentage points in a year, ranking first in the two markets.
At the same time, stepping on the big theme of 5G, China testing, Yilian network, Wanda, Huichuan technology, Qiming Xingchen as the representative of a series of electronic, computer sector of the technology stocks in the north of the capital holding ratio also rose rapidly. The percentage of northerly capital holdings tested by china also grew by more than 15 percentage points in 2019.
Looking at the change in the number of overweight shares, excluding the huge base of bank stocks, Beijing Dongfang A received nearly 900 million shares of capital in the north in 2019, and its share of capital in the north rose by a percentage point. On the other hand, Gree Electric, Haier Zhijia also received north of the capital to increase its holdings of about 400 million shares, an increase of more than 5 percentage points.
From the start of 2019, northward capital was bought aggressively for three months, but in the second quarter of last year, northward capital turned back to net outflow, hit a record one-month net outflow in may and returned for many days in june. For investors accustomed to successive, large inflows of foreign capital, this phenomenon cannot help but cause concern in the short term. Is the change of external environment changed the trend of admission of foreign capital? Or northward capital also can band operation?
Mention north capital, A-share investors give the label is \"long-term capital \",\" value investment \",\" holding firm.\" However, according to the institutional analysis, the north capital can also be divided into two types: allocation and transaction. Among them, trading funds may be macro hedging strategy products, or may be partial quantitative investment funds, this part of the transaction constitutes the short-term movement of northbound funds in and out.
CITIC Securities said that the high turnover of northbound funds stemmed mainly from clients hosted by foreign brokerages, which may contain some of the high-frequency trading of hedge funds, accounting for about% of the northbound funds, while overseas funds, consistent with the characteristics of \"long-term holdings \"and \"value investments \", accounted for about% of the total, tracking such funds more reflecting the long-term logic of foreign investment, with more reference value.
In general, there are obvious differences in the allocation behavior of the northbound funds hosted in different types of institutions: for example, the northbound funds hosted in securities firms are more frequently traded than those held in banks. Furthermore, the funds entrusted to domestic and Hong Kong securities firms are significantly more active than those entrusted to foreign firms.
For example, the northbound funds with obvious characteristics of speculative trading are mostly held in domestic brokerages, and their trading frequency is about twice that of the northbound funds held in foreign banks and brokers.
What needs to be clarified is, can reflect the foreign capital long-term logic of the north capital ratio, about 70% of the total, or the vast majority. This is also consistent with A-share investors'consistent understanding of foreign investment. There are few signs of such funds being substantially withdrawn. Distinguishing the different types of investors behind different trusteeship institutions is helpful to analyze the logic of buying and selling different sectors in different periods of time.
Combing the overall inflow rhythm of the northbound capital in 2019 will find that the peak of each stage of inflow is consistent with the A-share inclusion expansion rhythm of the three major international index companies such as MSCI. In particular, in September 2019, the three major international index companies ushered in a centralized period of inclusion or expansion of A-shares, the month, northbound capital inflows of 100 million yuan, a record one-month net turnover.
The northerly concentration of money to sweep goods to A-share investors also brought the previous rare interesting phenomenon - the end of the pulse. It is internationally accepted that most of the allocation of passive funds in the tracking index occurs at the end of the day. The reason is that the index design is based on the final price, at the same time, passive trading funds, trading errors and other calculations are based on the final price.
But whether the end of the pulse or the continued inflow of funds, are only north of the capital to bring A-share surface phenomenon. Its more far-reaching significance lies in the north of the capital for A-share voice, and A-share investment ecological changes.
According to the pricing model P = PE × EPS, the change of stock price comes from the change of PE (valuation) on the one hand and the change of EPS (profit) on the other. PE is influenced by a variety of factors, such as risk-free interest rate, risk premium, expected growth and so on, and EPS reflects the profit level of the enterprise. Other factors affecting stock prices can be extended from these two variables. PE and EPS together determine the ups and downs of the stock price.
Looking back at the A-share market since 2002, the pricing system is dominated by PE, which represents the sentiment and expectations of A-share investments, according to Guosheng's strategy team. It is because of the relatively low EPS in the pricing system that A shares often appear far away from the fundamental volatility.
And the institutional market will form the pricing leading of EPS, and finally promote the stock market volatility decline, gradually return to value, return to profit. Guosheng Securities believes that this phenomenon is foreign preference A-share advantage industry - food and beverage sector quietly occurred. Since 2017, foreign capital has flooded into the food and beverage industry. Since 2017, the food and beverage sector has increased by more than 70 percent, EPS by 72 percent and PE by only 6 percent, and the rise in EPS has been the main cause of the rise in the food and beverage sector.