2020年的首个交易日,北向资金全天大幅净买入亿元,其中沪股通渠道净买入亿元,深股通渠道净买入亿元。至此,北向资金自互联互通以来,累计净流入额突破万亿元,已达亿元。

On the first trading day of 2020, the northbound capital bought 100 million yuan a day, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect channel bought 100 million yuan in net and the Shenzhen Stock Connect channel bought 100 million yuan in net. At this point, since the north of the capital interconnection, the cumulative net flow of more than trillion yuan, has reached 100 million yuan.

  其中,2019年北向资金全年净买入额为亿元,创历年新高,较2018年增加亿元。与此同时,北向资金2019年的成交活跃度也有了显著提升。港交所统计年报显示,2019年1月1日至12月12日,北向资金交易总成交额达万亿元,较2018年的万亿元提高了98%。

Among them, the net purchase amount for the full year of the northbound capital in 2019 is 100 million yuan, a record high in the past year, an increase of 100 million yuan over 2018. At the same time, the transaction activity of the northbound capital in 2019 has also improved significantly. From January 1 to December 12,2019, the total turnover of northbound capital transactions reached trillion yuan, up 98 percent from the trillion yuan in 2018, according to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's statistical annual report.

  从细节看,北向资金有波段操作,也会追逐热点。如在去年,北向资金不再大手笔增持贵州茅台,且在去年12月份北向资金持股比例上升1个百分点以上的50多只个股中,酒类股也整体缺席。

From the details, north of the funds have band operation, will also chase hot spots. Such as last year, northerly capital is no longer a big increase in guizhou maotai, and in december, northerly capital holdings rose more than a percentage point of more than 50 stocks, alcohol stocks are also absent.

  但总体上,北向资金仍以长线逻辑为主导,其持续流入不仅影响了部分板块的定价,更推动了A股投资逻辑的改变。

However, in general, the northbound capital is still dominated by the long line logic, and its continuous inflow not only affects the pricing of some sectors, but also drives the change of the logic of A-share investment.

  自2019年11月14日起至12月30日,北向资金出现了长达连续30个交易日的净买入。数据显示,在北向资金2019年底的这一波操作中,电子板块以及此前相对“冷门”的周期股,是其主要加仓对象。

From November 14,2019 to December 30, northbound funds have seen a net purchase for up to 30 consecutive trading days. In this wave of operations at the end of 2019, the electronics sector, as well as the previous relatively \"cold\" cyclical stocks, were the main target of its additions, according to the data.

  去年12月,埃斯顿、韦尔股份的北向资金持股比例分别上升了个百分点和个百分点,位居两市所有标的前列。同时,水泥股中的祁连山在去年12月也获北向资金增持个百分点。这与过去一个月中,A股市场周期板块崛起、科技板块持续走强的行情高度合拍。

In december, aston and weir's northbound capital holdings rose by a percentage point and a percentage point, respectively, to the top of all the targets in the two cities. At the same time, cement stocks in the Qilian Mountain in December last year also received north of the capital to increase the percentage point. This is in line with the past month, A-share market cycle plate rise, technology sector continued to strengthen the market height.

  此前,以食品饮料、家用电器和医药生物为代表的大消费板块,一直是北向资金青睐的投资主线。2018年,大消费板块曾深度回调,医药生物、食品饮料、家用电器板块均录得20%以上幅度的回撤,这给了北向资金很好的“上车”机会。当年,伊利股份、五粮液获北向资金增持2亿股以上,北向资金对贵州茅台的持股比例由%升至8%左右。

Previously, the big consumer sector, represented by food and beverage, household appliances and pharmaceuticals, has been the main investment line favored by northbound funds. In 2018, the big consumer sector had a deep correction, pharmaceutical biology, food and beverage, household appliances plate all recorded more than 20% of the withdrawal, which gave northbound funds very good \"boarding\" opportunities. In that year, Yili shares, Wuliangye received more than 200 million shares of funds in the north, and the proportion of capital in Guizhou Moutai rose from% to about 8%.

  到了2019年,大消费板块一路高歌猛进,千元股贵州茅台屡创新高。但在此背景下,北向资金2019年的买入策略有所转变,不再集中于白酒等传统热门标的,而是将目光投向更多细分行业龙头。

By 2019, the big consumer sector has soared along the way, with thousands of yuan of shares in Guizhou Moutai repeatedly hitting a new high. But in this context, the northbound capital's 2019 buying strategy has shifted, no longer focusing on traditional hot targets such as liquor, but looking to more segment industry leaders.

  从持股比例变化看,2019年初至12月中下旬,一心堂、索菲亚、迪安诊断、欧派家居、云南白药、洽洽食品等一众“新面孔”的北向资金持股比例显著上升。其中,一心堂的北向资金持股比例一年间大幅上升约16个百分点,居沪深两市所有标的之首。

From the change of shareholding ratio, from the beginning of 2019 to the middle and late December, the proportion of northbound capital holdings of a group of \"new faces \", such as one-heart hall, Sofia, Dean diagnosis, Europa home, Yunnan Baiyao, Qia food and so on, increased significantly. Among them, the single-minded north of the capital-holding ratio rose by about 16 percentage points in a year, ranking first in the two markets.

  同时,踩着5G的大主题,以华测检测、亿联网络、广联达、汇川技术、启明星辰等为代表的一系列电子、计算机板块的科技类个股的北向资金持股比例也迅速上升。华测检测的北向资金持股比例在2019年同样增长了逾15个百分点。

At the same time, stepping on the big theme of 5G, China testing, Yilian network, Wanda, Huichuan technology, Qiming Xingchen as the representative of a series of electronic, computer sector of the technology stocks in the north of the capital holding ratio also rose rapidly. The percentage of northerly capital holdings tested by china also grew by more than 15 percentage points in 2019.

  从增持股数变动量看,剔除基数庞大的银行股,京东方A在2019年获北向资金增持近9亿股,其北向资金持股比例也上升了个百分点。另一方面,格力电器、海尔智家同样获北向资金增持约4亿股,持股比例升幅超过5个百分点。

Looking at the change in the number of overweight shares, excluding the huge base of bank stocks, Beijing Dongfang A received nearly 900 million shares of capital in the north in 2019, and its share of capital in the north rose by a percentage point. On the other hand, Gree Electric, Haier Zhijia also received north of the capital to increase its holdings of about 400 million shares, an increase of more than 5 percentage points.

  2019年伊始,北向资金便大刀阔斧连买3个月,而进入去年二季度,北向资金又掉头转向净流出,5月份创下单月净流出额历史新高,6月份方才再度连续多日回流。对习惯了外资连续、大幅流入的投资者而言,这种现象不免在短期内引起担忧。是外部环境变化改变了外资的入场趋势?还是北向资金也会波段操作?

From the start of 2019, northward capital was bought aggressively for three months, but in the second quarter of last year, northward capital turned back to net outflow, hit a record one-month net outflow in may and returned for many days in june. For investors accustomed to successive, large inflows of foreign capital, this phenomenon cannot help but cause concern in the short term. Is the change of external environment changed the trend of admission of foreign capital? Or northward capital also can band operation?

  提起北向资金,A股投资者给出的标签多是“长线资金”“价值投资”“持股不动”。但机构分析认为,北向资金内部也可分为配置型和交易型两类。其中,交易型资金可能是宏观对冲策略产品,也可能是偏量化的投资基金,这一部分交易构成了北向资金短期内的进出波动。

Mention north capital, A-share investors give the label is \"long-term capital \",\" value investment \",\" holding firm.\" However, according to the institutional analysis, the north capital can also be divided into two types: allocation and transaction. Among them, trading funds may be macro hedging strategy products, or may be partial quantitative investment funds, this part of the transaction constitutes the short-term movement of northbound funds in and out.

  中信证券表示,北向资金较高的换手率主要源自托管于外资券商的客户,背后可能包含了一部分对冲基金的高频交易,规模约占北向资金的%;而符合“长期持有”和“价值投资”行为特征的海外资金约占整体的%,跟踪此类资金更能反映外资的长线逻辑,更具参考价值。

CITIC Securities said that the high turnover of northbound funds stemmed mainly from clients hosted by foreign brokerages, which may contain some of the high-frequency trading of hedge funds, accounting for about% of the northbound funds, while overseas funds, consistent with the characteristics of \"long-term holdings \"and \"value investments \", accounted for about% of the total, tracking such funds more reflecting the long-term logic of foreign investment, with more reference value.

  总体来看,托管于不同类型机构的北向资金在配置行为上存在明显差异:如托管于券商的北向资金比托管于银行的资金,交易上明显更为频繁。进一步看,托管于内资和港资券商的资金,则明显比托管于外资机构的资金更活跃。

In general, there are obvious differences in the allocation behavior of the northbound funds hosted in different types of institutions: for example, the northbound funds hosted in securities firms are more frequently traded than those held in banks. Furthermore, the funds entrusted to domestic and Hong Kong securities firms are significantly more active than those entrusted to foreign firms.

  例如,具有明显主题投机性交易特征的北向资金,多托管于内资券商,其交易频繁度约是托管于外资银行和外资券商的北向资金的倍。

For example, the northbound funds with obvious characteristics of speculative trading are mostly held in domestic brokerages, and their trading frequency is about twice that of the northbound funds held in foreign banks and brokers.

  需要厘清的是,更能反映外资长线逻辑的北向资金占比,为总量的七成左右,还是绝大多数。这也与A股投资者对外资的一贯认知较为吻合。这类资金目前还很少出现大幅撤离的迹象。区分不同托管机构背后的不同类型投资者,有助于解析不同时期北向资金对各个板块的买卖逻辑。

What needs to be clarified is, can reflect the foreign capital long-term logic of the north capital ratio, about 70% of the total, or the vast majority. This is also consistent with A-share investors'consistent understanding of foreign investment. There are few signs of such funds being substantially withdrawn. Distinguishing the different types of investors behind different trusteeship institutions is helpful to analyze the logic of buying and selling different sectors in different periods of time.

  梳理2019年北向资金的整体流入节奏会发现,每一个阶段性流入的高峰,都与MSCI等三大国际指数编制公司的A股纳入扩容节奏相一致。尤其是2019年9月,三大国际指数编制公司迎来纳入或扩容A股的集中生效期,当月,北向资金集中流入亿元,刷新了此前的单月净流入额纪录。

Combing the overall inflow rhythm of the northbound capital in 2019 will find that the peak of each stage of inflow is consistent with the A-share inclusion expansion rhythm of the three major international index companies such as MSCI. In particular, in September 2019, the three major international index companies ushered in a centralized period of inclusion or expansion of A-shares, the month, northbound capital inflows of 100 million yuan, a record one-month net turnover.

  北向资金集中扫货还给A股投资者带来了此前少见的有趣现象——尾盘脉冲。追踪指数的被动资金在调仓时,大部分配置行为是在尾盘发生的,这是国际通用的做法。原因在于,指数设计是以尾盘价进行的,同时,被动交易资金、交易误差等计算也都以尾盘价为准。

The northerly concentration of money to sweep goods to A-share investors also brought the previous rare interesting phenomenon - the end of the pulse. It is internationally accepted that most of the allocation of passive funds in the tracking index occurs at the end of the day. The reason is that the index design is based on the final price, at the same time, passive trading funds, trading errors and other calculations are based on the final price.

  但无论是尾盘脉冲还是资金持续流入,都只是北向资金给A股带来的表层现象。其背后更深远的意义在于,北向资金对于A股话语权的不断提升,以及对A股投资生态潜移默化的改变。

But whether the end of the pulse or the continued inflow of funds, are only north of the capital to bring A-share surface phenomenon. Its more far-reaching significance lies in the north of the capital for A-share voice, and A-share investment ecological changes.

  根据定价模型P=PE×EPS,股价的变动一方面来自PE(估值)的变动,另一方面来自EPS(盈利)的变动。PE受无风险利率、风险溢价、预期增长等多种因素影响,EPS反映企业盈利水平。其他影响股价的因素均可从这两大变量向外扩展。PE与EPS共同决定了股价的跌宕起伏。

According to the pricing model P = PE × EPS, the change of stock price comes from the change of PE (valuation) on the one hand and the change of EPS (profit) on the other. PE is influenced by a variety of factors, such as risk-free interest rate, risk premium, expected growth and so on, and EPS reflects the profit level of the enterprise. Other factors affecting stock prices can be extended from these two variables. PE and EPS together determine the ups and downs of the stock price.

  国盛证券策略团队分析认为,回顾2002年以来的A股行情,定价体系主要由PE主导,PE代表的情绪和预期在A股投资中占据主要位置。正是由于定价体系中EPS占比较低,导致A股经常出现远远脱离于基本面的大幅波动。

Looking back at the A-share market since 2002, the pricing system is dominated by PE, which represents the sentiment and expectations of A-share investments, according to Guosheng's strategy team. It is because of the relatively low EPS in the pricing system that A shares often appear far away from the fundamental volatility.

  而机构化的市场将形成EPS的定价主导,最终促使股市波动率下降、逐步回归价值、回归盈利。国盛证券认为,这一现象正在外资偏爱的A股优势行业——食品饮料板块悄然发生。自2017年后,外资大量流入食品饮料行业。2017年至今,食品饮料板块涨幅超过70%,EPS涨幅72%,PE涨幅仅为6%,EPS上升成为食品饮料板块上涨的主因。

And the institutional market will form the pricing leading of EPS, and finally promote the stock market volatility decline, gradually return to value, return to profit. Guosheng Securities believes that this phenomenon is foreign preference A-share advantage industry - food and beverage sector quietly occurred. Since 2017, foreign capital has flooded into the food and beverage industry. Since 2017, the food and beverage sector has increased by more than 70 percent, EPS by 72 percent and PE by only 6 percent, and the rise in EPS has been the main cause of the rise in the food and beverage sector.


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