从去年年末开始,A股市场做多情绪浓烈,沪深两市成交也逐渐走高。绝大多数头部券商、知名基金经理乐观看待今年一季度A股行情,“春季躁动”、“牛市前夜”等词汇让广大投资者信心倍增,A股市场主要指数也一路攀高(沪指近一个月从2912点上升至3094点),作为基金管理人之一的公募基金,是否真的“心口如一”在加仓A股?

Since the end of last year, the A-share market to do a strong mood, Shanghai and Shenzhen trading also gradually higher. Most of the head brokers and well-known fund managers are optimistic about the A-share market in the first quarter of this year, and the words \"spring restlessness\" and \"bull market night\" have given investors more confidence, and the main index of the A-share market has climbed all the way (Shanghai index has risen from 2912 points to 3094 points).

  国金证券日前发布了最新一期的公募基金股票仓位测算报告,《证券日报》记者注意到,与一个月前的测算结果相比,股票型基金的仓位从%上升至%,混合型基金的仓位从%上升至%。在这背后,的确出现了大量公募基金加仓的踪迹:拥有权益产品的132家基金公司中,有113家均在近一个月选择了加仓,占比高达%。

Guojin Securities recently released its latest public offering fund stock position measurement report, the Securities Daily reporter noted that compared with the results of a month ago, the stock fund position rose from% to%, mixed fund position from% to%. Behind this, there is indeed a large number of public funds plus warehouse track:113 of the 132 fund companies with equity products have chosen to add positions in nearly a month, up to%.

  天弘周期策略基金的基金经理谷琦彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时曾表示:“目前周期制造行业的估值水平仍处在历史低位,2019年全年也没有经历估值的提升。未来随着经济触底预期逐渐增强,2020年周期制造板块有望迎来估值和业绩的双增长,尤其是细分行业中的房地产竣工产业链和汽车板块,今年有比较好的配置价值。”

\"The valuations in the cyclical manufacturing industry are still at all-time lows and haven't experienced an increase in valuations for the whole of 2019,\" Ki-bing Gu, a fund manager at the Tianhong Cycle Strategy Fund, told the Securities Daily. In the future, as the economy bottoms up, the manufacturing sector in the 2020 cycle is expected to see double growth in valuation and performance, especially in the real estate-completed industrial chain and the auto sector in the segment, with better allocation value this year.

  《证券日报》记者注意到,按照基金季报最新披露的基金规模及其持股仓位测算,公募基金对A股市场的投资市值约为万亿元。根据这一持股市值来看,仓位每变动1个百分点,便意味着有近244亿元的资金净流入或净流出股市。

According to the latest disclosure of the fund's quarterly report and its position, the market value of public funds'investments in the A-share market is about trillion yuan. Based on the stock market value, each one percentage point change in position means a net inflow or outflow of nearly $24.4 billion.

  此外,持股仓位变动1个百分点对权益基金而言也需要仔细斟酌。以股票型基金为例,其基金合同中规定,这类基金投资于股票资产的比例应在80%-95%之间(仓位达到95%即已满仓),换句话说,无论对当前投资环境有多悲观或乐观,这类基金的持股仓位变动空间仅有15个百分点。

In addition, a 1-percentage-point change in positions would need to be carefully considered for equity funds. In the case of equity funds, for example, its fund contract stipulates that the proportion of such funds invested in equity assets should be between 80% and 95%(positions up to 95% are full), in other words, no matter how pessimistic or optimistic the current investment environment is, there is only 15 percentage points for such funds to change their positions.

  在机构投资者普遍看多当前市场的大环境下,《证券日报》记者注意到,公募行业权益基金的整体持股仓位在近一个月内大增:根据国金证券先后发布的多份公募基金股票仓位测算报告,近一个月的时间内,股票型基金的仓位从%上升至%,增加了个百分点;混合型基金的仓位从%上升至%,增加了个百分点。

In an environment in which institutional investors are generally bullish on the current market, the Securities Daily reporter noted that the overall shareholding position of equity funds in the public offering industry has increased significantly in nearly a month: according to a number of public offering fund stock position measurement reports issued successively by Guojin Securities, the position of equity fund has increased from% to% in nearly a month, an increase of one percentage point; the position of hybrid fund has increased from% to%.

  国金证券还拟合测算了全市场所有基金公司的整体持股仓位,《证券日报》记者对比多份测算报告发现,被计入测算结果的132家基金公司中,有113家基金公司在近一个月选择了不同程度的加仓,在所有基金公司中占比高达%,另有19家基金公司选择了在此期间减仓,占比仅有%。

Guojin Securities also proposed to calculate the overall position of all fund companies in the market, the Securities Daily reporter compared a number of estimates found that 113 of the 132 fund companies included in the results of the calculation in the last month, the proportion of all fund companies as high as%,19 fund companies opted to reduce their positions during this period, only%.

  加仓动作最大的是永赢基金,该基金旗下权益产品的平均持股仓位从%增至%,在近一个月的时间内大幅增仓超60个百分点。除此之外,诸多老牌公募基金也选择了加仓,如博时基金、长盛基金、万家基金、易方达基金等,只不过这些基金公司原本持股仓位就较高,没有像永赢基金那么大的加仓空间。

The biggest move was the Yong Win Fund, which's equity product increased its average position from% to%, a sharp increase of more than 60 percentage points in nearly a month. In addition, many old public funds also chose to add positions, such as boshi fund, changsheng fund, ten thousand funds, yifangda fund and so on, but these fund companies originally held a higher position, not as big as win-win fund to add space.

  在单只权益基金的持股仓位上,有435只基金的持股仓位已经高达95%,达到“满仓状态”。除此之外,《证券日报》记者梳理发现,全市场拥有数据统计的2248只权益基金中,最新持股仓位在90%的基金多达709只,占比近三成;最新持股仓位在80%的基金共有1242只,占比超半数。

In a single equity fund's holding position,435 funds have held up to 95% of their positions, reaching \"full positions \". In addition, the securities daily reporter combed found that the market has statistics of the 2248 equity funds, the latest holdings in 90% of the fund as many as 709, accounting for nearly 30%; the latest holdings in 80% of the fund total 1242, accounting for more than half.

  选择仓位“拉满”的权益基金不在少数,其中还出现了众多老牌公募基金旗下权益产品的身影。如招商行业领先A、天弘周期策略、嘉实价值优势、华夏复兴、上投摩根中国优势、南方新兴消费增长等,这些产品成立时间较早、历经牛熊市场考验,成立以来均为背后的持有人获取了可观的回报。

Select positions \"full\" of the equity funds are not a few, which also appeared a number of old public funds under the equity products. Such as China Merchants industry leading A, Tianhong cycle strategy, value advantage, Huaxia rejuvenation, Shanghai investment Morgan China advantage, southern emerging consumption growth, these products were established earlier, after the test of the bear market, have been behind the holders of considerable returns.

  如南方基金副总经理兼首席投资官(权益)史博在近日分析称,站在当前时点展望2020年A股市场的投资机会,既要考虑到配置价值的乐观因素,也要看到结构行情已经演绎得较为充分,2019年A股市场结构行情已经分化较大,因此2020年需要更加精选行业和个股,建议广大投资者从ESG、高研发比例、高股息、估值还处合理区间的优质龙头等角度着手。记者王明山

Looking forward to the investment opportunities in the A-share market in 2020 at the current point of time, we should not only take into account the optimistic factors of the allocation value, but also see that the structure of the market has been more fully deduced, the 2019 A-share market structure has been divided, so we need to select more industries and individual stocks in 2020. Reporter Wang Mingshan


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